USDA lowers estimates of production of soybeans and corn in the US

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced on Friday, June 8, its estimates for production and domestic soybean and corn stocks. The anticipated monthly supply and demand report from the USDA brought a combination of data from January and February, since in the last month the document has not been published because of the shutdown of the US government.

The agency estimated the domestic soybean crop in 2018/2019 at 4.544 billion bushels (123.68 million tons), compared to 4.6 billion bushels (125.2 million tons) in the December report. Analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal projected 4.558 billion bushels (124 million tons). The forecast inventories in the US at the end of the season 2018/2019 was cut from 955 million to 910 million bushels (26 million to 24.77 million tons), while the market expected 920 million bushels (25 million tons).

As for the US corn crop in 2018/2019, the USDA lowered its estimate of 14.626 billion to 14.420 billion bushels (371.5 million to 366.27 million tons), while the market expectation was 14.509 billion bushels (368.53 million tons). The expectation of domestic reserves increased from 1.781 billion to 1.735 billion bushels (45.24 million to 44.07 million tons). Analysts had forecast 1.714 billion bushels (43.53 million tons).

Ending stocks of wheat in the US are designed in 1.01 billion bushels (27.5 million tons), 974 million bushels (26.5 million tons) in the December report. Analysts had a smaller increase to 993 million bushels (27 million tons).

The forecast for global soybean inventory was cut from 115.3 million to 106.7 million tons. The market expected a smaller decrease to 113.9 million tons. Global corn reserves were increased from 308.8 million to 309.8 million tons, while analysts expected a decline to 307.5 million tonnes. The forecast for global wheat stocks remained practically stable at 267.5 million tonnes.

Separately, the USDA published its quarterly stocks report that should have come out in January. The domestic reserves of soybeans in the US on December 1, 2018 were estimated at 3.736 billion bushels (101.7 million tons). The market expected a lower figure of 3.687 billion bushels (100.35 million tons). A year earlier, these stocks totaled 3.161 billion bushels (86 million tons).

As for maize, the US government estimated that domestic stocks in early December amounted to 11.952 billion bushels (303.6 million tons). Analysts had forecast 12.117 billion bushels (307.8 million tons). On the same date in 2017, the volume was 12.567 billion bushels (319.2 million tons). Already wheat reserves on December 1 totaled 1.999 billion bushels (54.4 million tons), compared to 1.873 billion bushels (51 million tons) a year earlier, said the UISDA. The market expectation was 1.952 billion bushels (53.13 million tons).

The USDA also released its estimate for the area sown with winter wheat in the country in October and November last year, referring to the 2019/20 harvest. According to the US government, farmers seeded 31.3 million acres (12.67 million hectares) with winter varieties, compared to 32.5 million acres (13.15 million hectares) in the previous cycle. The market area estimated at 32 million acres (12.95 million hectares).

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